A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
